Weekly Market Commentary

Stay up-to-date on markets and the economy with our latest weekly commentary report.

Read Time: 5 Min

April 18, 2025

Worldwide Headlines

  1. Tariff talks remain front and center. The news centered around a Japanese contingent in Washington this week to negotiate and the Trump Administration pushing to get China to the negotiating table. The Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was in Washington and positioning to be a conduit between the European Union and the U.S. on trade negotiations. No other major news.
  2. U.S. Dollar Index below 52-week range. For the first time since April 2022, the U.S. Dollar Index is staying below the 100 level. This is significant as it aids U.S. exporters but potentially causes prices to rise for U.S. importers. In the investment world, it can be a sign to invest overseas.
  3. Treasury yields calm down. Last week, the yield on a 10-year treasury note went from 4.00% to 4.50% -- this would be considered bad news for the housing market. This week the bond market saw some buying with the yield down to 4.32%. This is possibly some good news for the housing market.
  4. U.S. economic activity reports from March are mixed. This is the week where we get three national economic activity reports – the Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Housing Starts – for the previous month. Retail Sales and Industrial Production were both considered solid, while Housing Starts is crippled by rising new home inventories and higher prices.

Economic Reports

  1. Import Prices from March were +0.1% from the prior month and +0.9% from the prior year. Both were lower than expected. The lower numbers were led by lower petroleum, industrial supply, consumer goods and auto parts.
  2. Advance Retail Sales from March were as expected +1.4% from the prior month. U.S. retail sales rose substantially in March on a jump in car purchases; this suggests consumers were scrambling to get ahead of punitive auto tariffs. However, of the 14 categories in the report, 11 were higher month-over-month (MoM).
  3. Industrial Production Index for March fell 0.3% MoM to a reading of 103.9 but increased at an annual pace of 5.5% in the first quarter. The drop in March was related to Utility output as we saw temperatures warmer than typical for the month. The Manufacturing and Mining components of the index rose slightly in March.
  4. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were lower at 215,000 with Continuing Claims moving slightly higher to 1.885 million. No considerable novel news to report.
  5. NAHB Homebuilder Index for April rose a tick to a reading of 40, driven by a pickup in current sales, but demand expectations fell to a more than one-year low in the survey. The homebuilder’s association estimates that the tariffs, in their current form, will boost the cost on contractors by $10,900 per home.
  6. Housing Starts in March fell much more than expected at 1.324 million annualized. Building Permits increased to 1.482 million annualized. Housing Starts fell in March by the most in a year, as weak demand and high new home inventories give builders little near term confidence to break ground. The gain in Building Permits was mostly around authorizations of multifamily homes.

Markets this Week (mid-day Friday)

  1. U.S. Dollar Index is lower. DXY at 99.312, recently setting a new 52-low this week and -down 0.76% so far this week (1 yr. range = 99.312 to 109.956).
  2. Bond yields are lower. 2-year Treasury yield down to 3.79%; 10-year declines to 4.32%.
  3. Stocks considered mixed. 4 of 5 major global stock indexes we track are higher on the week, only the large cap S&P 500 is lower.
  4. Commodities move higher. 5 of 6 sectors in BCOM Index are higher: only Base Metals moved lower.

Next Week

  1. Economic Reports
    • Leading Economic Index, S&P Global/U.S. Composite Purchasing Manager Index, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, Existing Home Sales
      • U.S. consensus QoQ real GDP est.: Q1 = +1.0%, Q2 = +1.5%, Q3 = +1.6%, Q4 = +1.8%
      • U.S. consensus YoY inflation est.: Q1 = +2.7%, Q2 = +2.8%, Q3 = +3.2%, Q4 = +3.2%
  2. Earnings Reports
    • Q1-2025 S&P 500 EPS estimate at the beginning of the period = +6.6%
    • Q1-2025 S&P 500 summary to date: 60 reported; 73% beat estimate; YoY EPS = +7.3%
    • S&P 500 YoY EPS estimates: Q1-2025 = +7.3%, Q2-2025 = +7.4%, Q3-2025 = +11.5%, Q4-2025 = +11.3%
  3. Events
    • Central bank meeting in China, Russia, Indonesia
    • Fed Beige Book
    • U.S. earnings continue with Tesla up this week

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