Weekly Market Commentary

Stay up-to-date on markets and the economy with our latest weekly commentary report.

Read Time: 5 Min

February 14, 2025

Worldwide Headlines

  1. Tariff news goes from broad to targeted. The Trump Administration is now taking a more targeted approach to tariffs with a proposed 25% charge on aluminum and steel to start in mid-March and reciprocal tariffs to be laid out April 1. This is much more specific than the 25% levies initially planned for Mexico and Canada. In addition, markets handled the proposed 25% tariff on aluminum and steel this week much better versus the 25% on the two countries the prior week. More to come.
  2. Monthly inflation reports stay sticky. Inflation reports came out this week. Both consumer prices and producer prices were higher than expected from the prior month and are both now 3%+ higher than a year ago. As an example, the consumer price index was higher by 3.0% year-over-year in January. It was below 3% the last six months of 2024, reaching the lowest year-over-year rate of +2.4% in September.
  3. Commodity price movement is catching attention so far this year. There are 23 commodities in the Bloomberg Index that we track. Just so far this year, 8 of those 23 are up double-digits with only 5 commodities in the index slightly lower year-to-date. The upward move in prices includes Coffee, Gold, Natural Gas and Copper, among others. It is difficult to tell how much of this price movement is global economic demand versus users trying to get ahead of potential tariffs. In any case, it is not helpful to the overall inflation reports that the Fed is trying to move lower.

Economic Reports

  1. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January came in at a less than expected reading of 102.8. 7 of the 10 components decreased, led by the steepest monthly decline in capital spending plans since 1995. Interestingly, the findings in this Index were based on only 1,205 responses out of a sample of 10,000 business owners. This index is suffering like many other economic surveys due to low response rates.
  2. Consumer Price Index from January was a hotter-than-expected +0.5% from the prior month and +3.0% from the prior year. The core rate (i.e., Food & Energy) was slightly higher. The higher number was broad based on groceries to airlines to gasoline and house prices/rents.
  3. Federal Government budget thru January showed a -$128.6 billion deficit, which was higher than expected and over $100 billion higher than a year ago. For the first four months of this fiscal year (starting October 1), the Federal Government shows a deficit of $839.5 billion versus $531.86 billion in the prior year at the same time. Interestingly, Total Receipts are slightly higher fiscal year-to-date to $1.596 trillion while Total Spending gained from $2.116 trillion a year ago to $2.435 trillion.
  4. Producer Price Index for January was a tick higher than expected at +0.4% from the prior month and +3.5% from the prior year. Goods prices were higher by +0.6% from the prior month, while Services prices gained +0.3%.
  5. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 213,000 and the Continuing Claims were 1.85 million. Both were lower than expected. So far this year, the weekly average initial jobless claims run at 214,000.
  6. Advance Retail Sales from January showed a lower than expected -0.9% decline from a month ago. However, the prior month was revised from +0.4% to +0.7%. Of the 13 categories in the report, only Gasoline Stations, General Merchandise, Miscellaneous and Eating/Drinking categories were higher during the month. Hence a strong finish to the economy last year and weak start to 2025 with harsh weather in January.
  7. Industrial Production from January showed an increase of +0.5% from the prior month (higher than expected). It was Utilities that led the gain (+7.2%), while both Manufacturing (-0.1%) and Mining (-1.2%) declined.

Markets this Week (mid-day Friday)

  1. U.S. Dollar Index – lower. DXY at 106.55 or -1.28% lower so far this week (1 yr. range = 100.381 to 109.956).
  2. Bond yields – lower. 2-year Treasury yield down to 4.24%; 10-year declines to 4.45%.
  3. Stocks – mixed. The U.S. large cap index and two ex-US indexes we track are higher so far this week; the small- and mid-cap U.S. indexes are modestly lower.
  4. Commodities – higher. 5 of 6 sectors are higher in BCOM Index so far this week; only Grains is lower.

Next Week

  1. Economic Reports
    • NAHB Homebuilder Index, Housing Starts, Leading Economic Index, S&P Global PMI Indexes
      • U.S. consensus QoQ real GDP est.: Q4 = +2.3%, Q1 = +2.1%, Q2 = +2.0%, Q3 = +2.0%, Q4 = +2.0%
      • U.S. consensus YoY inflation est.: Q4 = +2.7%, Q1 = +2.6%, Q2 = +2.5%, Q3 = +2.7%, Q4 = +2.6%
  2. Earnings Reports
    • Q4-2024 S&P 500 EPS estimate at the beginning of the period = +7.5%
    • Q4-2024 S&P 500 summary to date: 384 reported; 75% beat estimate; YoY EPS = +12.7%
    • S&P 500 YoY EPS estimates: Q4-2024 = +13.3%, Q1-2025 = +8.4%, Q2-2025 = +8.2%, Q3-2025 = +12.0%, Q4-2025 = +12.4%
  3. Events
    • Presidents Day holiday on Monday in the U.S.
    • Central bank meeting in Australia, Indonesia, New Zealand, Nigeria
    • G-20 Foreign Ministers meeting in South Africa
    • Meeting minutes from FOMC meeting in January

Contact a Private Bank office today

Huntington’s team of Private Bank professionals are here to help with your wealth management needs. Find the location nearest you.
Learn More

Related Content

Banking & Investing News
When it comes to making sound financial decisions, it’s important to take current financial events into account. Find recent and relevant financial updates and opinions here.
Meet our Wealth Management Experts
Our experts are regularly featured in renowned media and financial publications. They take complex topics and turn them into straightforward insights for you.

Investment, Insurance and Non-deposit Trust products are: NOT A DEPOSIT • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT GUARANTEED BY THE BANK • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • MAY LOSE VALUE

Huntington offers a full range of wealth management and financial services through dedicated teams of professionals in the Huntington Private Bank® and Huntington Financial Advisors®, as follows:

  • Banking solutions, including loans and deposit accounts, are provided by The Huntington National Bank, Equal Housing Lender and Member FDIC.
  • Trust and investment management services are provided by The Huntington National Bank, a national bank with fiduciary powers.
  • Certain investment advisory solutions, securities, and insurance products are provided by Huntington Financial Advisors®.
  • Certain insurance products are offered by Huntington Insurance, Inc. and underwritten by third-party insurance carriers not affiliated with Huntington Insurance, Inc.

Huntington Private Bank® is a federally registered service mark of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated.

Huntington Financial Advisors® is a federally registered service mark and a trade name under which The Huntington Investment Company does business as a registered broker-dealer, member FINRA and SIPC, a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and a licensed insurance agency.

The Huntington National Bank, The Huntington Investment Company, and Huntington Insurance, Inc., are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated.

Minimum investment or deposit balance criteria apply with respect to the Huntington Private Bank. Please contact a Huntington Private Bank colleague for more information on eligibility requirements.